What Will The Future Be Like
I spend a lot of time thinking about global macro trends, and what the future may look like. I wanted to collate a list of the most interesting, most profound ideas I have come across (I will be updating this page regularly). This a collection of my interests and what I believe to be some of the most high-growth, future-orientated, global-shifting areas in the years to come.
Space
The developments in technology that are making asteroid mining possible. This will radically shift the scarcity of certain commodities and will result in a flood of increased supply to the market, causing a significant reduction in value. It will also create an expansion in the number of new products/services that are possible, as a result of an abundance of currently rare materials, and the opportunity for new products and materials as a result of the exploration of new materials.
The commercialisation of space travel/space tourism. Particularly companies that are increasing the affordability of space related expeditions and disrupting the aerospace industry. Relativity Space - through being the first fully 3D printed and robotically assembled rocket factory and launch service; turning raw materials into flight in 60 days. And Space X through the in-house manufacturing of component parts and developing re-usable shuttles.
The exploration of Mars including the potential of moving humanity to the planet and having a base for wider space travel in the future.
Psychedelics/Drugs
The shift in how we think and treat illegal drugs. It will become more generally accepted that we need to change our current policy on drugs, which currently perpetuates a lot of the issues related to this topic. A greater discussion about the decriminalisation and legalisation of illegal drugs changing how we view the dangers of the substances, treatment options, taxes, existing punishments and healthcare. The book Chasing the Scream and this video is a great introduction.
The prescription, encouragement , normalisation and wider acceptance of psychedelic experiences to assist in curing mental health related problems.
Blockchain
A fall in the trust placed in institutions resulting in a greater discrediting of their views. There will be a natural and necessary shift towards decentralisation primarily financially through the separation of money and state. This will offer a global consensus-driven approach in the financial system. A huge leap forwards will be made in promoting equality through the utilisation of de-fi contracts which takes judgement and bias out the equation on financial applications and financial contracts.
The creation of a collective virtual world using AR and VR - a Meta-verse. There will be one decentralised space using blockchain this will be a global, permission-less and censorship free, like the internet, allowing people to dream and imagine in this technological space. This space will need to protect privacy, allocate resources, pay for things and interlink with each other.
A change, including a component for creation, in the number and type of products and services that will emerge as a result of decentralisation - on the same level that mobile brought.
The wider adoption of blockchain technology will further democratise society through distributing more power to individuals creating a more inclusive political and economical environment through better aligning incentives.
The role decentralisation and Bitcoin will have in improving the lives in developing countries through by-passing the need for a traditional banking system and getting property rights on the blockchain which should lead to greater prosperity.
The Role of Work in Our Lives
A world in which everyone is freelancing, although sometimes collectively resembling some form of the current model. This will operate in a supply and demand ‘Uber’ system resulting in the price been driven from market factors depending on how appealing the work is and the level of specific skills required. This will result in people needing to develop specific skills but will mean fairer wages across the board.
Universal Basic Income materialising in some form due to AI generating more economic value and this being distributed to us. There will be increased leisure time resulting in more creative, innovative, efficient and effective outputs and solutions to existing problems as well as an increase in the consumption of content, and therefore a rise in content creation.
The continuation of change in our views in how we think about work in our lives. We have gone from work being a necessity to the current attitude where our jobs are primary focuses and often glorified and admired. Paul Millerd has a lot of models and theories on this area.
Society
A change in the delivery and formalisation of Education. As a result of increased accessibility to the internet which provides a lower cost, more relevant alternatives, and a decrease in the need for specific qualifications; there will be a greater take up in self-taught, less structured, more informal learning as opposed to traditional, institutional education.
The media industry has caused a high volume of noise lower quality information that focuses on clicks and sensationalism. Arbitrage will result in people desiring higher quality, researched, detailed information based on facts and evidence. A shift in our consumption of content and news will more likely come from individuals respected in their field. Each influential person will have specific areas of expertise which they will share views on instead of relying on traditional, centralised media.
An increasing interest in a more informal and individual take on religion and spirituality as people look to create deeper meaning and define a ‘why’ greater than themselves.
The development of lab-generated, bio-engineered meat and food, the commercialisation, up-take, ethics and adoption of artificially produced food and the consideration of health vs environmental impacts.
A change in the risk structure globally due to the integration, connectedness and centralisation of the world. This has resulted in greater efficiencies, lower costs and better communication however it has made any consequence more catastrophe on a larger scale due to the impact in spread.
Longevity
Breakthroughs in the science surrounding DNA (specifically the Epigenome) that will allow us to extend our lifespan and health-span to a point where we may be able to choose when to die. Biological damage is done when the DNA breaks as it loses information. It needs certain proteins to repair it, and there are actions we can take to make these proteins more effective (intermittent fasting, extreme temperatures, vigorous exercise etc). This then repairs the DNA more efficiently and effectively, so it retains more of its information, therefore keeping its youthfulness. I am following Dave Asprey and David Sinclair on this topic.
Innovations and technological advances that will detect and prevent illnesses and a greater monitoring of our health including more data being available to track and improve our health. And the rise in reasonable availability of these. Such as: Prenuvo: Head to toe MRI scan that can spot usually hidden illnesses.
DNA Methylation, which is essentially a biological clock, and how this can determine our date of death. Through understanding how certain compounds become chemically connected to the DNA over time, we can potentially be able to reverse this process, and therefore reverse ageing.
Technology
How algorithms will need to combine with humans for the most effective results and the impact on finance, court rooms, autonomous vehicles, art and music.
The increasing importance of our data controlling our lives and the difficulty but necessity in protecting it.
The impact that algorithms and ad-targeting will have on our individual freedom and the influence it will have on the amount of free-thought and free-speech we have, as well as how democratic our society becomes as a result of large companies having significant methods of influencing us on a global/country scale. Interesting case of Cambridge Analytica in The Great Hack and Targeted.
How social media and society are forcing us to solve complex, nuanced, systemic problems into binary solutions and defining people as one of two groups ,thus preventing real action, discussion and progress taking place on solving the actualities of the problems we face.
The developments in neuroscience related technology that will further integrate digital technology into our human body. And how future life may be bio-engineered and the level of consciousness that this technology will have.
The potential of building human-level AGI that will likely trigger an intelligence explosion. Thinking about the current race towards AGI and the rapid development of neural networks and how this will end up in a fascinatingly broad range of aftermath scenarios for our generation. The opportunities and challenges relating to bugs, laws, weapons and jobs, and how we can steer the inevitable AGI in the desired direction.
