Factfulness
Factfulness: ten reasons we are wrong about the world and why things are better than you think by Hans Rosling.
🚀 The Book in 3 Sentences
We have an outdated, often decades old, world view when it comes to big issues. This book is about installing a worldview upgrade.
We have so many instincts that used to be useful thousand of years ago, but we live in a very different world now.
Through reading this, we need to be prepared and willing to change our existing view; ready for critical thinking to replace instinctive reaction; feel humble, curious and ready to be amazed.
🎨 Impressions
I think I under appreciated how I needed to assess my position on the worlds biggest problems. We have made a lot of progress and this books shines a light on that.
This book gives you ten instincts that distort our perspective of the world. If you can learn to notice yourself falling into these traps, you will have a significantly more thorough and robust idea on how things are - something we can all strive for.
How I Discovered It
This book comes highly recommended by Bill Gates and Barak Obama which is good enough for me.
Who Should Read It?
If you are feeling overwhelmed by the picture the new presents this will help you block out some of this. If you want to improve your understanding of the world and want to reduce the bias in your perspective this is must read. It is also a very interesting if you like data and make big decisions.
✍️ My Top 3 Quotes
Many are still trying to operate according to deeply rooted, outdated, and distorted worldviews.
Forming your worldview by relying on the media would be like forming your view about me by looking only at a picture of my foot.
Here’s the paradox: the image of a dangerous world has never been broadcast more effectively than it is now, while the world has never been less violent and more safe.
📒 Summary + Notes
The Gap Instinct
The gap instinct makes us imagine a division, between rich and poor, developed and undeveloped where in reality there is a smooth range. News and media makes comments like 'the increasing gap' and share stories about conflicts between two groups.
When information is simplified it can become misleading. We need to recognise that when a picture of two group is painted the reality is not often polarised. usually, the majority is in the middle.
Be wary of comparisons, averages, and extremes.
The Negativity Instinct
In 1997, 42% of the population of India and China were living in extreme poverty. By 2017, in India, that has dropped to 12%. In China, that share had dropped to 0.7% over the same period.
Things can be both bad and better. It is having a clear and reasonable idea about how things are. It is having a worldview that is constructive and useful.
Gradual improvements and good news don't feature in the media. More news does not necessarily mean more suffering and a worsening world.
The Straight Line Instinct
When looking at a stone flying towards you, you can often predict whether it is going to hit you. You need no numbers, no graphs or spreadsheets. Your eyes extend the trajectory and you move out the stones way. This helps us survive, by working out where cars are going to be in a few seconds, for example. But this intuition is not always a reliable guide in modern life.
We know we won't continue growing taller forever, but when it comes to topics we are less knowledgeable about we make these assumptions.
The population will actually peak and start decreasing soon as we lift more people out of extreme poverty.
Therefore don't assume that trends continue.
The Fear Instinct
We pay attention to information that firs our dramatic instincts, ignoring information that does not. We have come to believe that unusual is usual. Fears that once kept our ancestors alive, keep journalists employed. Stories are driven by 'attention logic' as opposed to 'media logic.'
For example, flying has gotten 2100 times safer.
Dramatic earthquakes receive more news coverage then diarrhoea, small but scary chemical contaminations receive more news coverage than more harmful but less dramatic environmental deteriorations such as the dying seabed and overfishing.
Terrorism has killed 159 people on average on US soil a year (in the last 20 years). Alcohol contributed to a death of on average 69,000 a year over the same period.
Therefore calculate the risks. Risk = danger x exposure (risk it poses and how exposed to it you are). The world seems scarier than what it seems. Get calm before making decisions, wait for the panic to subside.
The Size Instinct
When you see one number falling, it is usually because another background number is falling.
Be careful of big numbers. When you see a lonely number in a report, think what should this be compared to. What was that number a year ago, ten years ago. What is it in a comparable country or region. What is the total of which this is a part. What should it be divided by. What would this be per person.
Once you have assessed these and got the figures in proportion, then decide how important that number is.
The Generalisation Instinct
Categories used in explanations can be misleading. Look for differences within the group and similarities across groups. Beware of 'the majority' and exceptional, vivid examples.
If you are happy to conclude that all chemicals are unsafe on the basis of one unsafe chemical, would you be prepare to conclude that all chemicals are safe based on one safe chemical.
The Destiny Instinct
We deem many things to be constant, such as people, countries, religions and cultures, but that is no the case - the change is just happening slowly.
Keep track of gradual improvements, talk to others including older generations to highlight how things have changed, update your knowledge as it goes out of date quickly.
The Single Perspective Instinct
We often simply the world. All problems have a single cause, something we must always be against. Or all problems have a single solution. We completely misunderstand the world through this single perspective mindset.
Test your ideas, admit you sometimes have limited expertise, don't only look at the numbers. Beware of simple ideas and solutions.
The Blame Instinct
When we look to blame an individual, focus is being taken from other possible explanations and blocks of our ability to prevent similar problems in the future.
So look for causes instead of villains, accept that bad things can happen.
The Urgency Instinct
When decisions feel urgent, it rarely is. Sometimes people are just crying wolf.
Take a breath, insist on the data, don't believe fortune tellers, be cautious of drastic, sudden action.
